In many ways, the British vote to leave the European Union, during their referendum on the 23rd of June, 2016, was the first crack in the foundations of the EU. However, the question remains, will there be other fissures in this political institution? Below are the countries that are most likely to leave the European Union.
It turns out that the Dutch people may, in fact, be rallying behind what Mr. Wilders has said. As recent polling from the Pew Research Center shows, about 46% of all Dutch people have at least
an unfavorable view of the European Union, and that 54% of the entire population of the Netherlands desires a referendum. This means that only a small percentage swing in favor of exiting, is all that is required for successful vote to leave. The good news is that if the Netherlands were ever to leave the European Union, their nation boasts a strong mercantile tradition, with the Port of Rotterdam, still being the sixth most active port in the entire world. The Dutch also have strong ties with the countries that form the shell of their once great colonial empire.
After the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union, national front leader, and French presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen, changed her Twitter picture, briefly, to a picture of the UK flag.
She even stated that, "This is a victory for freedom! As I've been saying for years, we must now have the same referendum in France, and other EU countries."
Perhaps emboldened by the United Kingdom's successful leave campaign, she pledged, that if she is elected, there will be an EU referendum, within six months of her taking office.However, while there is a clear desire in the political cast of frats, it remains to be seen if the French population at large, will rally behind any major efforts to leave the European Union. The thing to consider, though, is that France is one
of the linch pins of the EU, and if it goes, its departure could reignite the fires of centuries long national conflict, with countries such as Britain and Germany, that were long thought dead.
Italy is another country that is surprisingly Euro skeptical. This likely has more to do with economic reasons, than any others. Italy forms the I in the famous PIGS acronym, that lists the European nations that pose the greatest threat to the stability of the Euro. Many analysts believe that the Italian banking system would've collapsed, had it not been kept alive by cash infusions from the European Central Bank.
Certainly, the Italian bonds market seems to back up this conclusion.
Over the past decade, Italian bonds have been teetering, just above the brink of negative interest rates,
and 64% of Italian banking bonds are held by small Italian investors. This is a recipe for disaster. As a result, many in Italy have proposed an abandonment of the Euro, in favor of a return to the Lira, to allow for greater Italian control, over their own currency. Whether or not there is an EU referendum, it's clear that Italian debt has reached unsustainable proportions, with it now reaching seven times the size of all Greece's sovereign debt. Meanwhile, just as is the case with the Netherlands and France, prominent politicians have made very public calls for an exit from the European Union.
Matteo Salvini, who is the leader of the Northern League party in Italy, said in a tweet, "Hooray for the courage of free citizens! Heart, brains, and pride defeated lies, threats, and blackmail. Thank you, UK, now it is our turn!"
A Danish referendum, in December of 2015, firmly repudiated calls to hand over more legal powers to the EU. This referendum is a clear sign that many Danes' views of the Union, are beginning to sour. However, this fact alone is not enough to firmly prove whether Danes, as a whole, are truly willing to leave the European Union. Danes generally fear that more emigration could threaten their precarious welfare system. It's likely that if Denmark were to leave the European Union, the United Kingdom and Denmark
would seek to create their own political block, along with other Euro skeptic nations, to counter the entrenched powers that would remain within the European Union. As these fledgling nations will have to band together to make it without Brussels.
The fact that Greece is likely to leave the European Union, should not come as a surprise to anyone. In fact, the nation has openly debated leaving the Euro, many times, before the British EU referendum was even announced. Greece is also suffering under the heel of austerity which is seen as a form of German dominion, as well as crushing interest rates on the sovereign debt. In fact, according to some polls,
71% of those in Greece, see the EU unfavorably. While the looming Greek debt crisis has fallen out of the public consciousness, it's likely it will rear it's ugly head again sooner, rather than later.
Ironically, the greatest threat to Greece's EU membership, does not come from a referendum pushed
by anti-EU right wing parties, but rather, the likely event of Greece being expelled from the Union, in order to maintain order and stability, between the remaining members inside of the European Union.
NETHERLANDS
When it comes to the Netherlands, there certainly is no lack of a desire, to at least, question Dutch membership in the European Union. In fact, the Dutch politician, Geert Wilders, publicly declared that the Netherlands deserved its own referendum, shortly after the United Kingdom's, saying that, "We want to be in charge of our own country, our own money, our own borders, and our own immigration policy. As quickly as possible, the Dutch need to get the opportunity to have their say about Dutch membership of the European Union."
It turns out that the Dutch people may, in fact, be rallying behind what Mr. Wilders has said. As recent polling from the Pew Research Center shows, about 46% of all Dutch people have at least
an unfavorable view of the European Union, and that 54% of the entire population of the Netherlands desires a referendum. This means that only a small percentage swing in favor of exiting, is all that is required for successful vote to leave. The good news is that if the Netherlands were ever to leave the European Union, their nation boasts a strong mercantile tradition, with the Port of Rotterdam, still being the sixth most active port in the entire world. The Dutch also have strong ties with the countries that form the shell of their once great colonial empire.
FRANCE
She even stated that, "This is a victory for freedom! As I've been saying for years, we must now have the same referendum in France, and other EU countries."
Perhaps emboldened by the United Kingdom's successful leave campaign, she pledged, that if she is elected, there will be an EU referendum, within six months of her taking office.However, while there is a clear desire in the political cast of frats, it remains to be seen if the French population at large, will rally behind any major efforts to leave the European Union. The thing to consider, though, is that France is one
of the linch pins of the EU, and if it goes, its departure could reignite the fires of centuries long national conflict, with countries such as Britain and Germany, that were long thought dead.
ITALY
Certainly, the Italian bonds market seems to back up this conclusion.
Over the past decade, Italian bonds have been teetering, just above the brink of negative interest rates,
and 64% of Italian banking bonds are held by small Italian investors. This is a recipe for disaster. As a result, many in Italy have proposed an abandonment of the Euro, in favor of a return to the Lira, to allow for greater Italian control, over their own currency. Whether or not there is an EU referendum, it's clear that Italian debt has reached unsustainable proportions, with it now reaching seven times the size of all Greece's sovereign debt. Meanwhile, just as is the case with the Netherlands and France, prominent politicians have made very public calls for an exit from the European Union.
Matteo Salvini, who is the leader of the Northern League party in Italy, said in a tweet, "Hooray for the courage of free citizens! Heart, brains, and pride defeated lies, threats, and blackmail. Thank you, UK, now it is our turn!"
DENMARK
would seek to create their own political block, along with other Euro skeptic nations, to counter the entrenched powers that would remain within the European Union. As these fledgling nations will have to band together to make it without Brussels.
GREECE
71% of those in Greece, see the EU unfavorably. While the looming Greek debt crisis has fallen out of the public consciousness, it's likely it will rear it's ugly head again sooner, rather than later.
Ironically, the greatest threat to Greece's EU membership, does not come from a referendum pushed
by anti-EU right wing parties, but rather, the likely event of Greece being expelled from the Union, in order to maintain order and stability, between the remaining members inside of the European Union.
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